Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling - CFS Summer School 2006

Organization

Michael Binder (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Faculty

Charles M. Engel (University of Wisconsin, Madison,USA)
Philip R. Lane (Trinity College Dublin, Ireland)
Kenneth D. West (University of Wisconsin, Madison,USA)
Michael Binder (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Information

The CFS Summer School

offers in a scenic setting a stimulating environment for Ph.D. students to learn about the latest developments in their field from renowned international faculty,
helps postgraduate researchers in the positioning of their work through the exchange of research ideas and discussion of their research projects; in particular, they will have the opportunity to present their own work,
facilitates the establishment of contacts between young researchers coming from various universities and research institutions.

Program

August 13, 2006

Arrival

August 14, 2006

9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m.	Lecture Kenneth D. West Topic: Evaluating Forecasts from Time Series Models
11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.	Lecture Kenneth D. West Topic: Evaluating Forecasts from Time Series Models
2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.	Student Presentation Alessandro Calza (ECB) “Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?” Oliver Grimm (CER-ETH) “Monetary and Fiscal Policy Strategies in a Monetary Union”
4:00 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.	Student Presentation Vivien Lewis (Catholic University Leuven) “Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Firm Entry: Theory and Evidence” Maarten Dossche (National Bank of Belgium) “The Patterns and Determinants of Price Setting in the Belgian Industry”
7:00 p.m - 10:00 p.m.	Trip to Castle Johannisberg

August 15, 2006

9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m.	Lecture Kenneth D. West Topic: Evaluating Forecasts from Time Series Models
11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.	Lecture Kenneth D. West Topic: Evaluating Forecasts from Time Series Models
2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.	Lecture Philip R. Lane Topic: Modelling External Balances
4:00 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.	Lecture Philip R. Lane Topic: Modelling External Balances

August 16, 2006

9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m.	Lecture Philip R. Lane Topic: Modelling External Balances
11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.	Lecture Philip R. Lane Topic: Modelling External Balances
2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.	Student Presentation Rishab Sethi (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) “Smooth Operators and the New Zealand Current Account” Jan Strasky (Oxford University) “Monetary Policy and the Real Exchange Rate in Transition Economies”
4:00 p.m. - 6:15 p.m.	Student Presentation Thomas Nitschka (University of Dortmund) “Consumption Growth, Uncovered Equity Parity and the Cross-Section of Risk Premia on Foreign Currencies” Roald Versteeg (University of Maastricht) “The Economic Determinants of Controls on Capital Inflows and Outflows” Tuomas Peltonen (ECB) “Exchange Rate Regimes and Equity Returns in Emerging Markets”
7:15 p.m. - 11:00 p.m.	Trip to Vineyard Belz

August 17, 2006

9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m.	Lecture Michael Binder Topic: Dynamic Panel Modelling in Macroeconomics
11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.	Lecture Michael Binder Topic: Dynamic Panel Modelling in Macroeconomics
2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.	Student Presentation Ron Alquist (University of Michigan) “Did Adhering to the Gold Standard Reduce the Cost of Capital?” Arturo Ormeno (UPF) “Direct Multiperiod Estimation and Factor Models in Macroeconomic Forecasting”
4:00 p.m. - 6:15 p.m.	Student Presentation Martin Fuka? (Czech National Bank) “Econometric Issues Arising from DSGE Models” Klaus Wohlrabe (CESifo) “Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Time Series Models: A Monte Carlo Study” Christian Arndt (University of Tübingen) “Econometric Modelling of Regional Aggregated Church Tax Revenues”

August 18, 2006

9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m.	Lecture Michael Binder Topic: Dynamic Panel Modelling in Macroeconomics
11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.	Lecture Michael Binder Topic: Dynamic Panel Modelling in Macroeconomics
2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.	Lecture Charles M. Engel Topic: Empirical Models of Exchange Rates
4:00 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.	Lecture Charles M. Engel Topic: Empirical Models of Exchange Rates
7:00 p.m. - 9:15 p.m.	Student Presentation Agnieszka Markiewicz (Catholic University Leuven) “Model Misspecification and Learning in the Foreign Exchange Market” Oya Pinar Ardiç (Bogazici University) “Exchange Rate Forecasting and the Uncovered Interest Parity Condition in Emerging Markets” Michael Fidora (ECB) “Home Bias in Global Bond and Equity Markets: the Role of Real Exchange Rate Volatility”

August 19, 2006

9:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m.	Lecture Charles M. Engel Topic: Empirical Models of Exchange Rates
11:00 a.m. - 12:30 p.m.	Lecture Charles M. Engel Topic: Empirical Models of Exchange Rates
1:45 p.m. - 7:30 p.m.	Trip to Castle Rheinfels

August 20, 2006

Departure

General

Time and location:

The sixth CFS Summer School will be held at the Training Center of the Deutsche Bundesbank, situated 30 miles west of Frankfurt at the riverside of the Rhine and in the midst of one of the most famous wine growing areas in Germany. The program will start on Monday morning and will end on Saturday evening. Meals and lodging will be provided from Sunday evening (August 13) until Sunday morning (August 20). A couple of exciting social events will also be organized.

Venue

Training Center of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Eltville/Rheingau, Germany

Erbacher Straße 18, 65343 Eltville am Rhein, Phone: ++49-(0)6123-9 01-0

Directions from Eltville (Rhein)-Erbach to Hotel Tillmanns

Hauptstraße 2, 65346 Eltville-Erbach, Phone: ++49-(0)6123-9233-0

Directions from to Hotel Tillmanns to the Training Center of the Deutsche Bundesbank

Costs

€ 1,250.00

The total fee is EUR 1,250.- (including lodging and full board at the Training Center / a local hotel). A limited number of fellowships will be available to students.

Contact

Applications:

The extended deadline for applications was May 31, 2006.

The following documents must be provided with the application:

Curriculum Vitae (in English language)
One-page description of applicant`s research
Applicants who wish to present a research paper should submit the paper or an extended paper abstract.
Optional: Letter of recommendation

Participation will be confirmed after June 30, 2006.

All documents should be sent in electronic version as a PDF or Word document to:

Contact

Marcel Bluhm

Center for Financial Studies

Mertonstraße 17-21, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)69-798 23114

Fax: +49-(0)69-798 28655

E-mail: macrosummerschool(at)ifk-cfs.de

Registration

Online registration