Statements 2009

Josef Ackermann (Chairman of the Management Board and the Group Executive Committee of Deutsche Bank AG)

“There could probably not be a more appropriate time to honour Professor

Robert J. Shiller with the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics for his outstanding research work on the volatility of asset prices and the related macroeconomic risks. Professor Shiller has not only developed financial instruments and databases to gauge the extent of over-exuberance

on capital and property markets. He has also used these instruments to give timely warnings on the risks of such over-exuberance. However, his research has not been confined to problem analysis; he has also published numerous studies aimed at solving the problems. For this reason, his research findings have spread far beyond the academic community and are relevant for policymakers and financial market players alike.“

 


Otmar Issing (President of the CFS, Chairman of the Advisory Board of the House of Finance, "Honorarprofessor" (Honorary Professor) at Goethe University)

“There is one name that has been at the centre of the debate around the identification of “bubbles” in asset prices: Professor Robert Shiller.

His warnings against excessive share and real estate prices are based on pioneering studies which have brought significant theoretical and empirical impulses to economic research.  The combination of his top-class academic research and his contributions to objectifying the public debate make him the ideal candidate to receive the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics 2009.”

 


Takatoshi Ito (Professor at Graduate School of Economics and Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo)

"Professor Shiller is a very versatile scholar.  He first became well-known among macro-finance professors because of his excellent work on  asset price volatility and on a asset price bubble (sustained deviation of a market price from fundamental value).  Then, he has started to write more policy relevant articles and books, warning about tech bubble and housing bubble.  He also transformed his research on housing prices into a commercial venture to calculate and publish a housing price index.  Now, the Case-Shiller index,  is a standard, reliable housing price index everyone uses, and there is securities trading based on this index.  Housing prices are notorious in non-comparability due to each housing unit being unique in its location, floor space, years since built, and other characteristics. The Case-Shiller index is calculated using repeated sales units so that many of the characteristics can be regarded the same.  His ability to transform research from basic to policy-relevant, and from basic to commercially useful should be highly regarded, and the award is timely and well-deserved."

 


Jan P. Krahnen (Chairman of the Jury 2009, Professor of Finance at Goethe University Frankfurt, CFS Director)

"Through his innovative work exploring the dynamics of asset prices, Robert Shiller has become a pioneer in the field of financial economics. His findings on the volatility of share prices, the occurrence of price bubbles and resultant crises, as well as on the distribution of macroeconomic risks are not only of great academic importance, they have also broken new ground in economic practice."


Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Chief Economist of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)

"The Deutsche Bank Prize is awarded to an outstanding economist who has made path-breaking contributions to theory, empirics and /or policy in the fields of finance, money or macroeconomics. Nobody fulfills these conditions better than Robert Shiller. His analytical and empirical work on asset price dynamics, equity price volatility, asset and housing price bubbles, financial crises, and risk diversification has extended significantly the frontier of financial economics. His prescient work and warnings on the development of the 1990s-early 2000s stock market boom and bust and the 2000s housing and stock market bubble that led to the ongoing global financial crisis and recession are proof of Shiller's rare combination of analytical strength and empirical insightfulness. There is no better recipient of the 2009 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics than Professor Shiller."

 


Marti Subrahmanyam (Charles E. Merrill Professor of Finance and Economics in the Stern School of Business, New York University). 

"Professor Robert Shiller is one of the world’s foremost researchers on financial markets and has been working in the intersection of macroeconomics and financial markets for almost four decades. His work spans a broad spectrum of issues that are both academically challenging and practically relevant. Noteworthy examples of his extensive research on the limits of market efficiency include his papers on "excess volatility," predictability of asset returns, behavioral macroeconomics, and real estate economics. His work on pricing metrics, particularly in the area of real estate, has had a major impact on practice and policy making. Given the breadth of his research, Professor Shiller is uniquely qualified to address the important issues relating to the current global financial crisis."

 


Maria Vassalou (SAC Capital Advisors LLC and President of the European Finance Association)

"Shiller’s important work on the excess volatility puzzle has far-reaching implications for economic models of price fluctuations. His contribution has greatly shaped the evolution of both academic and practitioners’ thinking on the pricing of assets in speculative markets.”

 

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